Donald Rumsfeld Was Right All Along
January 30th, 2009 by Jeb Foster
But before we get to the Don, let’s talk about a lesser-known guy named Nassim Taleb.
Nassim Taleb is an economist and the author of Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.
Black Swan’s thesis statement is thus: improbable events are actually more probable than we think, and their effects are often devastating.
“What you don’t know can really hurt you,” was the lesson Motley Fool book reviewer Jack Uldrich took from the book.
The “black swan” of the title refers to the discovery of the Australian black swan. Until the discovery, most of the world was operating under the belief that all swans were white. The presence of a black swan came as a shock.
Now, the term “black swan” refers to any event that comes as a surprise and debunks long-held beliefs.
Some might say that the current financial meltdown was a black swan: with a couple of decades of incredible economic growth and globalization, people started to believe that the market was invulnerable, that the invisible hand would always guide us to greater wealth and stability …
“Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholders’ equity, myself included, are in a state of shocked disbelief,” said Alan Greenspan last October as the U.S. economy unraveled.
“This modern risk-management paradigm held sway for decades,” Greenspan said. “The whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed in the summer of last year.”
To continue with Taleb’s metaphor, Greenspan thought all swans were white until the summer of 2007. He thought the free market system was perfectly calibrated by rational self-interest. He never thought that it could spin wildly out of control. Boy was he wrong!
Unknown unknowns
Remember when former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld talked about “known knowns” and “known unknowns”? Here’s the full quote, which got him a lot of jeers at the time:
There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know.
The thing is, despite being a terrible military planner—perhaps the worst ever—Rumsfeld was right on the money with this quote. (The tragedy is that he didn’t heed this known known: invading and occupying a country, particularly if it’s a Muslim country, is never, ever a cake walk.)
It’s the “unknown unknowns” that Taleb focuses on in Black Swan. They are the things that seemingly come out of nowhere and in seconds demolish our bedrock beliefs.
Anyway, all of this is preamble to this list of Nassim Taleb’s life tips, which he shared with the Times (UK) recently. I figured that if I posted them without any context, you might just brush them off. But, truly, everyone should be listening to this guy:
Taleb’s top life tips
1. Scepticism is effortful and costly. It is better to be sceptical about matters of large consequences, and be imperfect, foolish and human in the small and the aesthetic.
2. Go to parties. You can’t even start to know what you may find on the envelope of serendipity. If you suffer from agoraphobia, send colleagues.
3. It’s not a good idea to take a forecast from someone wearing a tie. If possible, tease people who take themselves and their knowledge too seriously.
4. Wear your best for your execution and stand dignified. Your last recourse against randomness is how you act — if you can’t control outcomes, you can control the elegance of your behaviour. You will always have the last word.
5. Don’t disturb complicated systems that have been around for a very long time. We don’t understand their logic. Don’t pollute the planet. Leave it the way we found it, regardless of scientific ‘evidence’.
6. Learn to fail with pride — and do so fast and cleanly. Maximise trial and error — by mastering the error part.
7. Avoid losers. If you hear someone use the words ‘impossible’, ‘never’, ‘too difficult’ too often, drop him or her from your social network. Never take ‘no’ for an answer (conversely, take most ‘yeses’ as ‘most probably’).
8. Don’t read newspapers for the news (just for the gossip and, of course, profiles of authors). The best filter to know if the news matters is if you hear it in cafes, restaurants… or (again) parties.
9. Hard work will get you a professorship or a BMW. You need both work and luck for a Booker, a Nobel or a private jet.
10. Answer e-mails from junior people before more senior ones. Junior people have further to go and tend to remember who slighted them.
Go to parties? Skip the news? Tease people who take themselves too seriously? Brilliant.





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